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MBSAFEPrairies
Provencher
T
Ted Falk
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative58%±6%·>99% win
Liberal29%±5%·<1% win
NDP7%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
14.7%
#2 of 343top 5%
Median income
$47,480
Renters
19.1%
Under 35
19.4%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.0%
Area
18,519 km²
GE45 result
Margin
40.4%
Competitive
59.6/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T257
Median income
$47,480
#T142
Avg 2BR rent
$1587/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T303
Unemployment
6.4%
bottom 25%#250
Shelter stressed
14.9%
#286
Renters
19.1%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
19.4%#T77
35–64
56.6%
65+
24.1%#251
Housing tenure
Renters
19.1%#286
Owners
80.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
15.5%#48
High school
33.2%#T14
College/trades
34.3%#181
Bachelor's
12.9%#277
Postgrad
4.1%#307
People & Economy
#103
French knowledge
15.5%
#T199
Immigrants
13.2%
#211
Recent arrivals
1.9%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#261
Visible minority
5.8%
bottom 25%#29
Indigenous
15.1%
top 10%#T160
Govt. transfers
13.4%
#97
Self-employed
16.3%
Industry of employment
Trades & transport27.7%
Public sector25.0%
Resources9.4%
Manufacturing9.3%
Finance & prof6.6%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 29.6 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
HighIndex: 92 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
High severityIndex: 159.7 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.6M/yr
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