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ONLEANOntario
St. Catharines
C
Chris Bittle
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal57%±7%·>99% win
Conservative31%±5%·<1% win
NDP8%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
22.2%
#4 of 343top 5%
Median income
$47,240
Renters
36.4%
Under 35
15.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.8%
Area
96 km²
GE45 result
Margin
11.6%
Competitive
88.4/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare34.7% aged 65+
Employment15.8% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T261
Median income
$47,240
bottom 25%#308
Avg 2BR rent
$1019/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#19
Unemployment
15.8%
top 10%#91
Shelter stressed
24.1%
#99
Renters
36.4%
Age distribution
Under 35
15.8%#147
35–64
49.5%
65+
34.7%#49
Housing tenure
Renters
36.4%#99
Owners
63.6%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.7%#208
High school
29.5%#T65
College/trades
35.3%#168
Bachelor's
17.7%#T193
Postgrad
8.8%#185
People & Economy
#T213
French knowledge
6.7%
#162
Immigrants
19.3%
#188
Recent arrivals
2.5%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#178
Visible minority
16.0%
#T180
Indigenous
2.5%
#T64
Govt. transfers
17.0%
top 25%#T191
Self-employed
13.1%
Industry of employment
Public sector25.8%
Trades & transport16.8%
Finance & prof9.6%
Manufacturing8.6%
Resources2.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 50.8 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 76.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$71.5M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.1M/yr
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