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NBSAFEAtlantic
Tobique—Mactaquac
R
Richard Bragdon
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative51%±6%·97% win
Liberal38%±5%·3% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
88.0%
#26 of 343top 10%
Median income
$45,280
Renters
15.5%
Under 35
12.2%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.6%
Area
15,389 km²
GE45 result
Margin
22.9%
Competitive
77.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare33.6% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#296
Median income
$45,280
bottom 25%#309
Avg 2BR rent
$1013/mo
bottom 10%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T202
Unemployment
9.4%
#338
Shelter stressed
8.8%
bottom 5%#325
Renters
15.5%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
12.2%#T261
35–64
54.2%
65+
33.6%#T59
Housing tenure
Renters
15.5%#325
Owners
82.2%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.6%#T150
High school
33.9%#6
College/trades
35.6%#162
Bachelor's
14.6%#236
Postgrad
5.3%#264
People & Economy
#110
French knowledge
13.9%
#290
Immigrants
4.8%
bottom 25%#268
Recent arrivals
0.9%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#315
Visible minority
2.4%
bottom 10%#86
Indigenous
5.8%
#T66
Govt. transfers
16.9%
top 25%#234
Self-employed
12.0%
Industry of employment
Public sector28.6%
Trades & transport22.4%
Manufacturing9.9%
Resources7.2%
Finance & prof6.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 13.8 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 3 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$4.3M/yr
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