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NLTOSSUPAtlantic
Terra Nova—The Peninsulas
J
Jonathan Rowe
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal49%±6%·89% win
Conservative40%±6%·11% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Govt. transfers
28.6%
#1 of 343top 5%
Median income
$40,080
Renters
14.7%
Under 35
7.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.7%
Area
37,814 km²
GE45 result
Margin
0.1%
Competitive
99.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare41.5% aged 65+
Employment20.3% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#335
Median income
$40,080
bottom 5%#328
Avg 2BR rent
$890/mo
bottom 5%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#2
Unemployment
20.3%
top 5%#334
Shelter stressed
9.5%
bottom 5%#330
Renters
14.7%
bottom 5%Age distribution
Under 35
7.8%#339
35–64
50.6%
65+
41.5%#4
Housing tenure
Renters
14.7%#330
Owners
85.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
18.3%#16
High school
28.3%#92
College/trades
44.3%#46
Bachelor's
6.1%#343
Postgrad
3.0%#340
People & Economy
#342
French knowledge
1.9%
bottom 5%#341
Immigrants
1.2%
bottom 5%#T338
Recent arrivals
0.2%
bottom 5%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#343
Visible minority
0.8%
bottom 5%#187
Indigenous
2.4%
#1
Govt. transfers
28.6%
top 5%#332
Self-employed
7.8%
bottom 5%Industry of employment
Public sector28.7%
Trades & transport25.8%
Resources12.4%
Manufacturing11.4%
Finance & prof3.6%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 50.9 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$6.2M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.0M/yr
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