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ONLEANOntario
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
C
Costas Menegakis
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative46%±5%·57% win
Liberal45%±6%·43% win
NDP4%±4%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Self-employed
22.3%
#13 of 343top 5%
Median income
$65,600
Renters
16.1%
Under 35
7.6%
Top industry
Finance & prof · 23.2%
Area
102 km²
GE45 result
Margin
11.9%
Competitive
88.1/100
Key issues
Immigration & settlement49.0% immigrants
Employment12.5% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T38
Median income
$65,600
top 25%#14
Avg 2BR rent
$2437/mo
top 5%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T73
Unemployment
12.5%
top 25%#22
Shelter stressed
32.5%
top 10%#T315
Renters
16.1%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
7.6%#342
35–64
70.9%
65+
21.5%#295
Housing tenure
Renters
16.1%#T315
Owners
83.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
3.6%#331
High school
16.8%#283
College/trades
25.0%#300
Bachelor's
34.9%#18
Postgrad
19.7%#40
People & Economy
#159
French knowledge
8.7%
#34
Immigrants
49.0%
top 10%#T90
Recent arrivals
5.4%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#43
Visible minority
54.1%
top 25%#329
Indigenous
0.4%
bottom 5%#T323
Govt. transfers
6.9%
bottom 10%#13
Self-employed
22.3%
top 5%Industry of employment
Finance & prof23.2%
Public sector21.4%
Trades & transport11.8%
Manufacturing7.4%
Resources0.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 30.6 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$2.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.6M/yr
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