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BCSWINGBC
North Island—Powell River
A
Aaron Gunn
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
NDP37%±6%·74% win
Conservative32%±5%·24% win
Liberal24%±5%·2% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
65+
39.2%
#10 of 343top 5%
Median income
$49,040
Renters
22.2%
Under 35
10.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.7%
Area
72,389 km²
GE45 result
Margin
6.1%
Competitive
93.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare39.2% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#221
Median income
$49,040
#215
Avg 2BR rent
$1377/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T232
Unemployment
8.7%
#191
Shelter stressed
18.5%
#248
Renters
22.2%
Age distribution
Under 35
10.8%#293
35–64
50.0%
65+
39.2%#10
Housing tenure
Renters
22.2%#248
Owners
76.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.2%#156
High school
30.3%#57
College/trades
39.0%#115
Bachelor's
13.1%#273
Postgrad
7.4%#T207
People & Economy
#173
French knowledge
7.9%
#214
Immigrants
11.6%
#T264
Recent arrivals
1.0%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#271
Visible minority
5.1%
bottom 25%#40
Indigenous
11.6%
top 25%#T68
Govt. transfers
16.7%
top 25%#T44
Self-employed
19.1%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector28.7%
Trades & transport20.4%
Resources9.8%
Finance & prof7.9%
Manufacturing4.0%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 33.2 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
HighIndex: 54 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 104.3 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.9M/yr
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