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NBLEANAtlantic
Saint John—St. Croix
J
John Williamson
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative45%±6%·58% win
Liberal44%±6%·42% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
86.9%
#54 of 343top 25%
Median income
$46,360
Renters
16.5%
Under 35
13.0%
Top industry
Public sector · 30.3%
Area
11,173 km²
GE45 result
Margin
11.6%
Competitive
88.4/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare32.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T272
Median income
$46,360
bottom 25%#278
Avg 2BR rent
$1133/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T186
Unemployment
9.8%
#327
Shelter stressed
9.9%
bottom 5%#T311
Renters
16.5%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
13.0%#T242
35–64
54.6%
65+
32.4%#80
Housing tenure
Renters
16.5%#T311
Owners
83.5%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
9.1%#184
High school
34.7%#3
College/trades
38.7%#120
Bachelor's
12.9%#278
Postgrad
4.7%#291
People & Economy
#118
French knowledge
12.8%
#295
Immigrants
4.5%
bottom 25%#298
Recent arrivals
0.6%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#T316
Visible minority
2.3%
bottom 10%#157
Indigenous
3.1%
#T84
Govt. transfers
16.2%
top 25%#T282
Self-employed
10.6%
bottom 25%Industry of employment
Public sector30.3%
Trades & transport19.6%
Manufacturing8.7%
Finance & prof6.8%
Resources6.7%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 30.1 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 10 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$2.8M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.4M/yr
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