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ONSAFEOntario
Haldimand—Norfolk
L
Leslyn Lewis
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative50%±6%·94% win
Liberal39%±5%·6% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
88.4%
#18 of 343top 10%
Median income
$49,480
Renters
17.0%
Under 35
11.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 22.3%
Area
4,563 km²
GE45 result
Margin
21.2%
Competitive
78.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare35.8% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T215
Median income
$49,480
#246
Avg 2BR rent
$1250/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T202
Unemployment
9.4%
#234
Shelter stressed
16.1%
#T307
Renters
17.0%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
11.8%#T274
35–64
52.4%
65+
35.8%#37
Housing tenure
Renters
17.0%#T307
Owners
83.0%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
12.5%#86
High school
30.8%#44
College/trades
42.2%#56
Bachelor's
10.7%#T319
Postgrad
3.8%#316
People & Economy
#328
French knowledge
3.3%
bottom 5%#T228
Immigrants
9.9%
#291
Recent arrivals
0.7%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#282
Visible minority
4.2%
bottom 25%#T144
Indigenous
3.5%
#T97
Govt. transfers
15.9%
#T114
Self-employed
15.7%
Industry of employment
Trades & transport25.2%#T16
Public sector22.3%#277
Manufacturing16.0%#T20
Resources7.5%#60
Finance & prof5.9%#309
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 54.1 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$4.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.6M/yr
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