QCSAFEQuebec

Beauce

Jason Groleau

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Conservative52%±6%·>99% win

Liberal22%±5%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois13%±5%·<1% win

People's6%±3%·<1% win

NDP4%±4%·<1% win

Green3%±3%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Manufacturing

23.1%

#1 of 343top 5%

Median income

$46,120

Renters

27.6%

Under 35

15.6%

Top industry

Manufacturing · 23.1%

Area

4,244 km²

GE45 result

Margin

40.6%

Competitive

59.4/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare30.4% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#279

Median income

$46,120

bottom 25%

#317

Avg 2BR rent

$976/mo

bottom 10%

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#338

Unemployment

5.0%

bottom 5%

#340

Shelter stressed

8.5%

bottom 5%

#179

Renters

27.6%

Age distribution

Under 35

15.6%#154

35–64

54.0%

65+

30.4%#118

Housing tenure

Renters

27.6%#179

Owners

72.5%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

15.3%#54

High school

19.3%#239

College/trades

50.8%#10

Bachelor's

10.8%#315

Postgrad

3.8%#314

People & Economy

#11

French knowledge

99.6%

top 5%

#T333

Immigrants

1.5%

bottom 5%

#319

Recent arrivals

0.4%

bottom 10%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#320

Visible minority

2.1%

bottom 10%

#253

Indigenous

1.5%

#T51

Govt. transfers

17.6%

top 25%

#186

Self-employed

13.2%

Industry of employment

Manufacturing23.1%

Trades & transport22.5%

Public sector22.1%

Finance & prof6.6%

Resources6.0%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Low

Index: 9.8 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 0 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 79.2 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$3.8M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$6.4M/yr

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