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NSSWINGAtlantic
Central Nova
S
Sean Fraser
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal56%±6%·>99% win
Conservative33%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
19.9%
#40 of 343top 25%
Median income
$45,960
Renters
18.8%
Under 35
10.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.1%
Area
11,811 km²
GE45 result
Margin
9.2%
Competitive
90.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare34.7% aged 65+
Employment12.4% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#282
Median income
$45,960
bottom 25%#T267
Avg 2BR rent
$1175/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T78
Unemployment
12.4%
top 25%#293
Shelter stressed
12.8%
bottom 25%#T288
Renters
18.8%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
10.8%#295
35–64
54.5%
65+
34.7%#48
Housing tenure
Renters
18.8%#T288
Owners
80.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.5%#120
High school
27.7%#104
College/trades
42.1%#T59
Bachelor's
13.2%#T269
Postgrad
5.5%#253
People & Economy
#T235
French knowledge
6.2%
#307
Immigrants
3.6%
bottom 25%#T299
Recent arrivals
0.6%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#287
Visible minority
3.8%
bottom 25%#111
Indigenous
4.6%
#T53
Govt. transfers
17.5%
top 25%#248
Self-employed
11.6%
Industry of employment
Public sector28.1%
Trades & transport23.0%
Manufacturing8.0%
Finance & prof6.7%
Resources5.9%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 30.9 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.8M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.2M/yr
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