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NSTOSSUPAtlantic
Cumberland—Colchester
A
Alana Hirtle
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal53%±6%·99% win
Conservative35%±6%·1% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
21.2%
#11 of 343top 5%
Median income
$43,680
Renters
28.3%
Under 35
13.2%
Top industry
Public sector · 29.1%
Area
11,078 km²
GE45 result
Margin
2.5%
Competitive
97.5/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare36.1% aged 65+
Employment12.7% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#313
Median income
$43,680
bottom 10%#257
Avg 2BR rent
$1222/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T65
Unemployment
12.7%
top 25%#241
Shelter stressed
15.5%
#167
Renters
28.3%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.2%#T229
35–64
50.8%
65+
36.1%#33
Housing tenure
Renters
28.3%#167
Owners
71.0%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
12.8%#T83
High school
30.4%#55
College/trades
37.9%#133
Bachelor's
12.5%#T283
Postgrad
6.5%#T226
People & Economy
#T258
French knowledge
5.5%
bottom 25%#302
Immigrants
4.0%
bottom 25%#T275
Recent arrivals
0.8%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#285
Visible minority
3.8%
bottom 25%#113
Indigenous
4.5%
#T28
Govt. transfers
19.2%
top 10%#T246
Self-employed
11.7%
Industry of employment
Public sector29.1%
Trades & transport19.7%
Manufacturing11.5%
Resources6.0%
Finance & prof5.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 33.8 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$6.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.1M/yr
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