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ONSWINGOntario
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South
A
Andrew Lawton
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal45%±6%·66% win
Conservative42%±5%·34% win
NDP7%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Manufacturing
16.0%
#20 of 343top 10%
Median income
$50,240
Renters
24.1%
Under 35
13.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 24.6%
Area
3,344 km²
GE45 result
Margin
7.0%
Competitive
93.0/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare31.1% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T204
Median income
$50,240
#177
Avg 2BR rent
$1478/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T167
Unemployment
10.2%
#201
Shelter stressed
17.9%
#224
Renters
24.1%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.3%#T224
35–64
55.6%
65+
31.1%#106
Housing tenure
Renters
24.1%#224
Owners
75.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
12.6%#85
High school
28.4%#88
College/trades
39.4%#T105
Bachelor's
13.7%#258
Postgrad
5.9%#T246
People & Economy
#T292
French knowledge
4.7%
bottom 25%#T186
Immigrants
14.3%
#T238
Recent arrivals
1.3%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#222
Visible minority
8.9%
#T205
Indigenous
2.0%
#T111
Govt. transfers
15.2%
#109
Self-employed
15.8%
Industry of employment
Public sector24.6%
Trades & transport23.3%
Manufacturing16.0%
Finance & prof8.0%
Resources4.7%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 51.5 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$8.4M/yr
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