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ABSAFEPrairies
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
L
Laila Goodridge
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative72%±6%·>99% win
Liberal18%±4%·<1% win
NDP4%±4%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Resource sector
26.3%
#3 of 343top 5%
Median income
$84,400
Renters
30.0%
Under 35
24.3%
Top industry
Resources · 26.3%
Area
147,514 km²
GE45 result
Margin
65.7%
Competitive
34.3/100
Key issues
Energy & natural resources26.3% resource sector
Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 1654 (Canada avg 100)
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#7
Median income
$84,400
top 5%#97
Avg 2BR rent
$1779/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T195
Unemployment
9.5%
#277
Shelter stressed
13.5%
bottom 25%#144
Renters
30.0%
Age distribution
Under 35
24.3%#30
35–64
65.0%
65+
10.7%#339
Housing tenure
Renters
30.0%#144
Owners
66.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.1%#159
High school
27.7%#T105
College/trades
42.2%#57
Bachelor's
14.7%#233
Postgrad
5.3%#265
People & Economy
#T187
French knowledge
7.4%
#175
Immigrants
16.3%
#T126
Recent arrivals
4.3%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#162
Visible minority
20.4%
#23
Indigenous
18.1%
top 10%#T336
Govt. transfers
5.2%
bottom 5%#330
Self-employed
8.2%
bottom 5%Industry of employment
Trades & transport29.0%#1
Resources26.3%#3
Public sector23.0%#251
Finance & prof4.9%#328
Manufacturing1.9%#338
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 19.5 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
ExtremeIndex: 1654 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
ElevatedIndex: 135.5 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$8.2M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.6M/yr
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