BCLEANBC

Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies

Mel Arnold

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Conservative45%±6%·90% win

Liberal36%±5%·10% win

NDP13%±6%·<1% win

Green4%±5%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Retail & service

19.9%

#35 of 343top 25%

Median income

$50,240

Renters

20.8%

Under 35

13.2%

Top industry

Public sector · 23.6%

Area

33,574 km²

GE45 result

Margin

13.2%

Competitive

86.8/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare35.0% aged 65+

Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 162 (Canada avg 100)

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T204

Median income

$50,240

#187

Avg 2BR rent

$1455/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T253

Unemployment

8.2%

#212

Shelter stressed

17.3%

#265

Renters

20.8%

bottom 25%

Age distribution

Under 35

13.2%#T229

35–64

51.9%

65+

35.0%#46

Housing tenure

Renters

20.8%#265

Owners

78.8%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

8.9%#196

High school

30.2%#59

College/trades

39.9%#95

Bachelor's

14.7%#234

Postgrad

6.4%#234

People & Economy

#T220

French knowledge

6.5%

#236

Immigrants

9.5%

#241

Recent arrivals

1.3%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#T268

Visible minority

5.3%

bottom 25%

#58

Indigenous

8.7%

top 25%

#T137

Govt. transfers

14.2%

#55

Self-employed

18.6%

top 25%

Industry of employment

Public sector23.6%

Trades & transport23.5%

Finance & prof8.1%

Resources7.9%

Manufacturing7.0%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 20.9 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

High

Index: 162 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Average

Index: 104.3 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$2.3M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$1.8M/yr

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