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NBTOSSUPAtlantic
Miramichi—Grand Lake
M
Mike Dawson
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal48%±6%·84% win
Conservative41%±5%·16% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Govt. transfers
24.7%
#8 of 343top 5%
Median income
$41,040
Renters
17.0%
Under 35
11.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 35.5%
Area
19,781 km²
GE45 result
Margin
1.1%
Competitive
98.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare38.1% aged 65+
Employment15.6% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#326
Median income
$41,040
bottom 5%#T299
Avg 2BR rent
$1050/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#21
Unemployment
15.6%
top 10%#T331
Shelter stressed
9.6%
bottom 5%#T307
Renters
17.0%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
11.1%#288
35–64
50.9%
65+
38.1%#14
Housing tenure
Renters
17.0%#T307
Owners
77.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
15.5%#47
High school
32.5%#23
College/trades
38.5%#121
Bachelor's
9.8%#334
Postgrad
3.7%#319
People & Economy
#96
French knowledge
27.1%
#320
Immigrants
2.6%
bottom 10%#293
Recent arrivals
0.6%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#326
Visible minority
1.8%
bottom 5%#44
Indigenous
11.1%
top 25%#8
Govt. transfers
24.7%
top 5%#311
Self-employed
9.2%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector35.5%#34
Trades & transport21.3%#T91
Manufacturing8.9%#134
Resources8.8%#48
Finance & prof4.4%#333
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 20.0 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 8 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
ElevatedIndex: 120.5 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.2M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$1.3M/yr
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