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ONTOSSUPOntario
Northumberland—Clarke
P
Philip Lawrence
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal48%±6%·81% win
Conservative41%±6%·19% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
65+
39.4%
#8 of 343top 5%
Median income
$53,400
Renters
18.1%
Under 35
9.6%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.7%
Area
2,629 km²
GE45 result
Margin
3.1%
Competitive
96.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare39.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#153
Median income
$53,400
#179
Avg 2BR rent
$1471/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T143
Unemployment
10.7%
#192
Shelter stressed
18.4%
#299
Renters
18.1%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
9.6%#327
35–64
51.1%
65+
39.4%#T8
Housing tenure
Renters
18.1%#299
Owners
81.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.8%#200
High school
29.5%#T67
College/trades
41.9%#64
Bachelor's
14.3%#244
Postgrad
5.4%#T258
People & Economy
#225
French knowledge
6.4%
#220
Immigrants
10.9%
#T306
Recent arrivals
0.5%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#270
Visible minority
5.3%
bottom 25%#T147
Indigenous
3.5%
#110
Govt. transfers
15.3%
#82
Self-employed
17.0%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector25.7%
Trades & transport21.2%
Manufacturing10.6%
Finance & prof8.7%
Resources3.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 32.4 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.6M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.5M/yr
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