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QCSAFEQuebec
Papineau
M
Marjorie Michel
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal58%±6%·>99% win
NDP18%±5%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois16%±5%·<1% win
Conservative4%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Transit commuters
38.0%
#1 of 343top 5%
Median income
$43,160
Renters
72.0%
Under 35
28.6%
Top industry
Public sector · 26.6%
Area
10 km²
GE45 result
Margin
36.4%
Competitive
63.6/100
Key issues
Housing affordability72.0% renters
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#317
Median income
$43,160
bottom 10%#249
Avg 2BR rent
$1247/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T129
Unemployment
11.0%
#106
Shelter stressed
23.3%
#2
Renters
72.0%
top 5%Age distribution
Under 35
28.6%#15
35–64
51.6%
65+
19.8%#314
Housing tenure
Renters
72.0%#2
Owners
27.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
13.8%#68
High school
15.3%#T313
College/trades
26.7%#278
Bachelor's
23.5%#124
Postgrad
20.7%#29
People & Economy
#71
French knowledge
82.6%
top 25%#81
Immigrants
34.5%
top 25%#77
Recent arrivals
5.8%
top 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#72
Visible minority
42.6%
top 25%#307
Indigenous
0.7%
bottom 25%#T97
Govt. transfers
15.9%
#T241
Self-employed
11.8%
Industry of employment
Public sector26.6%
Finance & prof15.7%
Trades & transport10.3%
Manufacturing8.5%
Resources0.7%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 24.3 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$13.5M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.2M/yr
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