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ONSAFEOntario
Toronto—St. Paul's
L
Leslie Church
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal66%±6%·>99% win
Conservative24%±5%·<1% win
NDP6%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Median income
$105,400
#1 of 343top 5%
Renters
58.9%
Under 35
23.7%
Top industry
Finance & prof · 31.6%
Area
16 km²
GE45 result
Margin
28.8%
Competitive
71.2/100
Key issues
Housing affordability58.9% renters
Seniors & healthcare26.8% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#1
Median income
$105,400
top 5%#T15
Avg 2BR rent
$2404/mo
top 5%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T148
Unemployment
10.6%
#12
Shelter stressed
35.8%
top 5%#25
Renters
58.9%
top 10%Age distribution
Under 35
23.7%#33
35–64
49.5%
65+
26.8%#193
Housing tenure
Renters
58.9%#25
Owners
41.1%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
2.7%#338
High school
12.2%#336
College/trades
17.3%#341
Bachelor's
38.5%#3
Postgrad
29.3%#7
People & Economy
#111
French knowledge
13.8%
#89
Immigrants
33.1%
#44
Recent arrivals
7.1%
top 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#109
Visible minority
32.5%
#301
Indigenous
0.8%
bottom 25%#341
Govt. transfers
4.6%
bottom 5%#21
Self-employed
21.6%
top 10%Industry of employment
Finance & prof31.6%
Public sector24.1%
Trades & transport6.0%
Manufacturing3.3%
Resources0.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 12.5 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 76.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.6M/yr
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