Forecast

The Trajectory Model — a Bayesian state-space forecaster trained on 20+ years of monthly economic data and polling. Answers where is polling going, not just where it is today.

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Election-Day Distribution

Vote share distribution assuming an election is called in the selected horizon.

Attribution Modifier

Is the government being held responsible for economic conditions? In Phase 5 this will be set automatically from media sentiment analysis.

LiberalNeutral

ExculpatedBlamed

ConservativeNeutral

ExculpatedBlamed

NDPNeutral

ExculpatedBlamed

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