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Metro VancouverSwingUrban
Surrey-Fleetwood
Incumbent: Jagrup Brar · BC NDP
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
Conservative61% chance of winning
- Conservative · Garry Purewal61%
- BC NDP · Jagrup Brar (incumbent)39%
- BC Green · Tim Binnema
- OneBC · Carolyn Hofbauer
- CentreBC · Paul Brar
2024 result
- Jagrup Brarelected9,92348.6%
- Avtar Gill9,17044.9%
- Tim Binnema1,3216.5%
- Margin
- 3.7%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 54.1%
- Registered
- 37,753
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Jagrup Brarelected10,52649.8%
- Garry Thind5,26424.9%
- Mike Starchuk2,15810.2%
- Dean McGee1,4536.9%
- Marvin Hunt1,2746.0%
- Rebecca Smith3131.5%
- Aisha Rehana Bali1300.6%
- Marcella Williams280.1%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2452%
- 25-3441%
- 35-4451%
- 45-5456%
- 55-6459%
- 65-7464%
- 75+57%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $102,00016 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,35455 of 93
- Renters
- 25.2%54 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 25.9%46 of 93
- Median age
- 40.462 of 93
- Over 65
- 17.2%61 of 93
- Immigrants
- 51.6%12 of 93
- Visible minority
- 76.0%10 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 1.6%81 of 93
- Unemployment
- 8.6%47 of 93
Closest races in Metro Vancouver
The seats most likely to move with this one.