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ONSWINGOntario
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
D
Doug Shipley
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal46%±6%·63% win
Conservative44%±6%·37% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
10.2%
#62 of 343top 25%
Median income
$55,100
Renters
28.6%
Under 35
15.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 27.4%
Area
1,366 km²
GE45 result
Margin
7.3%
Competitive
92.7/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare28.0% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T119
Median income
$55,100
#119
Avg 2BR rent
$1651/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T91
Unemployment
12.1%
#90
Shelter stressed
24.5%
#161
Renters
28.6%
Age distribution
Under 35
15.3%#159
35–64
56.7%
65+
28.0%#175
Housing tenure
Renters
28.6%#161
Owners
71.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.8%#201
High school
27.0%#T119
College/trades
39.0%#114
Bachelor's
17.8%#191
Postgrad
7.4%#206
People & Economy
#T220
French knowledge
6.5%
#206
Immigrants
12.6%
#T228
Recent arrivals
1.5%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#203
Visible minority
11.3%
#132
Indigenous
4.0%
#T187
Govt. transfers
12.2%
#100
Self-employed
16.1%
Industry of employment
Public sector27.4%
Trades & transport19.8%
Manufacturing10.0%
Finance & prof8.6%
Resources1.7%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 31.6 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.0M/yr
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