ONSAFEOntario

Beaches—East York

Nate Erskine-Smith

Liberal

nathaniel.erskine-smith@parl.gc.ca 613-992-2115

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal71%±7%·>99% win

Conservative15%±5%·<1% win

NDP9%±5%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's1%±2%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Pop. density

5777.4/km²

#13 of 343top 5%

Median income

$69,500

Renters

44.2%

Under 35

12.9%

Top industry

Public sector · 25.2%

Area

19 km²

GE45 result

Margin

44.2%

Competitive

55.8/100

Key issues

Employment13.4% unemployment

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#27

Median income

$69,500

top 10%

#131

Avg 2BR rent

$1607/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T48

Unemployment

13.4%

top 25%

#T64

Shelter stressed

27.3%

top 25%

#65

Renters

44.2%

top 25%

Age distribution

Under 35

12.9%#246

35–64

63.2%

65+

23.9%#T253

Housing tenure

Renters

44.2%#65

Owners

55.8%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

6.8%#T252

High school

17.8%#266

College/trades

23.7%#312

Bachelor's

32.1%#37

Postgrad

19.5%#43

People & Economy

#120

French knowledge

12.5%

#101

Immigrants

31.7%

#T109

Recent arrivals

4.8%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#T94

Visible minority

36.1%

#T216

Indigenous

1.8%

#T299

Govt. transfers

8.4%

bottom 25%

#69

Self-employed

17.6%

top 25%

Industry of employment

Public sector25.2%

Finance & prof23.3%

Trades & transport10.1%

Manufacturing4.1%

Resources0.4%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 32.7 / 100

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 61.8 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$0.3M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$7.3M/yr

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