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ABSAFEPrairies
Calgary Nose Hill
M
Michelle Rempel Garner
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative52%±5%·98% win
Liberal38%±5%·2% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Unemployment
13.7%
#42 of 343top 25%
Median income
$57,200
Renters
27.7%
Under 35
13.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 23.5%
Area
61 km²
GE45 result
Margin
23.2%
Competitive
76.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare25.9% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement35.3% immigrants
Employment13.7% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T95
Median income
$57,200
#66
Avg 2BR rent
$1923/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T42
Unemployment
13.7%
top 25%#166
Shelter stressed
20.1%
#176
Renters
27.7%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.7%#207
35–64
60.4%
65+
25.9%#212
Housing tenure
Renters
27.7%#176
Owners
72.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.1%#218
High school
22.6%#T183
College/trades
30.3%#234
Bachelor's
26.9%#84
Postgrad
12.1%#124
People & Economy
#T251
French knowledge
5.8%
#78
Immigrants
35.3%
top 25%#98
Recent arrivals
5.2%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#63
Visible minority
44.2%
top 25%#T144
Indigenous
3.5%
#T252
Govt. transfers
10.2%
#T114
Self-employed
15.7%
Industry of employment
Public sector23.5%
Trades & transport17.0%
Finance & prof14.7%
Manufacturing4.5%
Resources4.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 9.4 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 80.0 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$13.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.0M/yr
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