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MBLEANPrairies
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
R
Rebecca Chartrand
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal50%±6%·>99% win
NDP28%±5%·<1% win
Conservative16%±6%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Public sector
47.7%
#5 of 343top 5%
Median income
$40,880
Renters
24.9%
Under 35
21.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 47.7%
Area
494,572 km²
GE45 result
Margin
16.8%
Competitive
83.2/100
Key issues
Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 348 (Canada avg 100)
Employment14.3% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#329
Median income
$40,880
bottom 5%#221
Avg 2BR rent
$1348/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T32
Unemployment
14.3%
top 10%#325
Shelter stressed
10.4%
bottom 10%#213
Renters
24.9%
Age distribution
Under 35
21.7%#T53
35–64
59.2%
65+
19.1%#320
Housing tenure
Renters
24.9%#213
Owners
40.6%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
33.5%#3
High school
28.0%#T96
College/trades
25.3%#295
Bachelor's
9.8%#333
Postgrad
3.4%#333
People & Economy
#340
French knowledge
2.5%
bottom 5%#310
Immigrants
3.3%
bottom 10%#T255
Recent arrivals
1.1%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#289
Visible minority
3.7%
bottom 25%#3
Indigenous
76.9%
top 5%#24
Govt. transfers
19.6%
top 10%#341
Self-employed
5.0%
bottom 5%Industry of employment
Public sector47.7%
Trades & transport20.5%
Resources8.3%
Finance & prof2.4%
Manufacturing1.9%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 26.5 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
ExtremeIndex: 348 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$39.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.0M/yr
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