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ABSAFEPrairies
Foothills
J
John Barlow
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative67%±6%·>99% win
Liberal23%±4%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Self-employed
23.7%
#7 of 343top 5%
Median income
$63,150
Renters
15.8%
Under 35
10.1%
Top industry
Self-employed · 23.7%
Area
19,369 km²
GE45 result
Margin
57.2%
Competitive
42.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare32.7% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#53
Median income
$63,150
top 25%#164
Avg 2BR rent
$1511/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T214
Unemployment
9.1%
#197
Shelter stressed
18.1%
#320
Renters
15.8%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
10.1%#315
35–64
57.2%
65+
32.7%#T73
Housing tenure
Renters
15.8%#320
Owners
81.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.9%#T191
High school
28.7%#83
College/trades
39.3%#110
Bachelor's
16.9%#204
Postgrad
6.3%#238
People & Economy
#275
French knowledge
5.1%
bottom 25%#210
Immigrants
11.9%
#T204
Recent arrivals
2.0%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#239
Visible minority
6.7%
#T48
Indigenous
10.3%
top 25%#T244
Govt. transfers
10.4%
#7
Self-employed
23.7%
top 5%Industry of employment
Public sector22.4%
Trades & transport20.8%
Resources11.5%
Finance & prof10.0%
Manufacturing5.6%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 12.1 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
ModerateIndex: 42 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.2M/yr
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