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NBSAFEAtlantic
Fredericton—Oromocto
D
David Myles
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal65%±6%·>99% win
Conservative24%±5%·<1% win
Green5%±5%·<1% win
NDP4%±5%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Public sector
41.4%
#14 of 343top 5%
Median income
$51,700
Renters
39.1%
Under 35
24.6%
Top industry
Public sector · 41.4%
Area
289 km²
GE45 result
Margin
29.0%
Competitive
71.0/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare26.0% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T177
Median income
$51,700
#T203
Avg 2BR rent
$1400/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T266
Unemployment
7.9%
bottom 25%#225
Shelter stressed
16.7%
#87
Renters
39.1%
Age distribution
Under 35
24.6%#28
35–64
49.4%
65+
26.0%#208
Housing tenure
Renters
39.1%#87
Owners
59.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
5.1%#297
High school
24.5%#147
College/trades
28.1%#261
Bachelor's
27.6%#79
Postgrad
14.7%#85
People & Economy
#98
French knowledge
24.8%
#224
Immigrants
10.4%
#123
Recent arrivals
4.4%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#204
Visible minority
11.3%
#107
Indigenous
5.0%
#T209
Govt. transfers
11.5%
#309
Self-employed
9.3%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector41.4%
Finance & prof11.8%
Trades & transport10.4%
Manufacturing2.4%
Resources1.1%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 25.6 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$16.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.5M/yr
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