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ONLEANOntario
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga
S
Shelby Kramp-Neuman
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative46%±6%·68% win
Liberal43%±6%·32% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
89.1%
#11 of 343top 5%
Median income
$48,000
Renters
16.7%
Under 35
10.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 29.9%
Area
9,665 km²
GE45 result
Margin
13.9%
Competitive
86.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare36.0% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#246
Median income
$48,000
#T109
Avg 2BR rent
$1700/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T167
Unemployment
10.2%
#235
Shelter stressed
16.1%
#310
Renters
16.7%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
10.7%#299
35–64
53.3%
65+
36.0%#T34
Housing tenure
Renters
16.7%#310
Owners
82.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.1%#133
High school
30.8%#45
College/trades
42.5%#53
Bachelor's
11.2%#310
Postgrad
4.3%#303
People & Economy
#242
French knowledge
6.1%
#266
Immigrants
6.9%
bottom 25%#T324
Recent arrivals
0.4%
bottom 10%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#300
Visible minority
3.3%
bottom 25%#65
Indigenous
8.1%
top 25%#T49
Govt. transfers
17.7%
top 25%#126
Self-employed
15.3%
Industry of employment
Public sector29.9%
Trades & transport24.2%
Manufacturing9.5%
Finance & prof6.7%
Resources4.0%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 30.8 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 78.4 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$5.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.5M/yr
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