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NSLEANAtlantic
South Shore—St. Margarets
J
Jessica Fancy-Landry
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal59%±6%·>99% win
Conservative32%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
NDP3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
65+
39.0%
#11 of 343top 5%
Median income
$45,120
Renters
18.5%
Under 35
10.2%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.2%
Area
11,715 km²
GE45 result
Margin
13.8%
Competitive
86.2/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare39.0% aged 65+
Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 159 (Canada avg 100)
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#297
Median income
$45,120
bottom 25%#152
Avg 2BR rent
$1556/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T98
Unemployment
11.9%
#283
Shelter stressed
13.4%
bottom 25%#293
Renters
18.5%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
10.2%#310
35–64
50.7%
65+
39.0%#11
Housing tenure
Renters
18.5%#293
Owners
81.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
14.8%#58
High school
26.1%#T130
College/trades
39.4%#T105
Bachelor's
13.4%#266
Postgrad
6.4%#233
People & Economy
#202
French knowledge
6.8%
#281
Immigrants
5.7%
bottom 25%#285
Recent arrivals
0.7%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#T312
Visible minority
2.5%
bottom 10%#91
Indigenous
5.5%
#30
Govt. transfers
18.9%
top 10%#83
Self-employed
17.0%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector25.2%
Trades & transport18.7%
Manufacturing12.8%
Resources10.0%
Finance & prof7.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 37.1 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
HighIndex: 159 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.0M/yr
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