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QCTOSSUPQuebec
Les Pays-d'en-Haut
T
Tim Watchorn
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal45%±7%·94% win
Bloc Québécois34%±6%·6% win
Conservative10%±6%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
91.1%
#1 of 343top 5%
Median income
$53,950
Renters
19.1%
Under 35
11.0%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.4%
Area
1,804 km²
GE45 result
Margin
4.9%
Competitive
95.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare31.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T142
Median income
$53,950
#287
Avg 2BR rent
$1094/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T270
Unemployment
7.8%
bottom 25%#236
Shelter stressed
16.0%
#285
Renters
19.1%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
11.0%#289
35–64
57.6%
65+
31.4%#100
Housing tenure
Renters
19.1%#285
Owners
80.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.9%#102
High school
19.4%#235
College/trades
47.8%#26
Bachelor's
14.4%#242
Postgrad
6.5%#T226
People & Economy
#35
French knowledge
98.3%
top 25%#285
Immigrants
5.2%
bottom 25%#313
Recent arrivals
0.4%
bottom 10%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#322
Visible minority
1.9%
bottom 10%#229
Indigenous
1.7%
#T128
Govt. transfers
14.5%
#38
Self-employed
19.4%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector25.4%
Trades & transport21.7%
Finance & prof10.0%
Manufacturing9.2%
Resources1.1%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 15.2 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 4 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$8.1M/yr
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