QCLEANQuebec

Montcalm

Luc Thériault

Bloc Québécois

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Bloc Québécois46%±6%·99% win

Liberal29%±5%·1% win

Conservative15%±5%·<1% win

NDP5%±5%·<1% win

Green3%±3%·<1% win

People's2%±2%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Construction

14.1%

#4 of 343top 5%

Median income

$49,240

Renters

25.5%

Under 35

19.0%

Top industry

Public sector · 25.8%

Area

756 km²

GE45 result

Margin

19.7%

Competitive

80.3/100

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#218

Median income

$49,240

#234

Avg 2BR rent

$1287/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T322

Unemployment

5.7%

bottom 10%

#298

Shelter stressed

12.5%

bottom 25%

#206

Renters

25.5%

Age distribution

Under 35

19.0%#84

35–64

58.8%

65+

22.2%#286

Housing tenure

Renters

25.5%#206

Owners

74.5%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

15.1%#57

High school

20.3%#218

College/trades

50.8%#12

Bachelor's

10.2%#327

Postgrad

3.6%#323

People & Economy

#18

French knowledge

99.4%

top 10%

#289

Immigrants

4.9%

bottom 25%

#303

Recent arrivals

0.5%

bottom 25%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#T254

Visible minority

6.0%

#T220

Indigenous

1.8%

#T92

Govt. transfers

16.0%

#T215

Self-employed

12.5%

Industry of employment

Public sector25.8%

Trades & transport25.4%

Manufacturing10.9%

Finance & prof7.7%

Resources2.4%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 31.9 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 1 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 71.0 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$1.9M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$0.2M/yr

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