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ONTOSSUPOntario
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake
T
Tony Baldinelli
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal47%±6%·77% win
Conservative42%±6%·23% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Unemployment
21.4%
#1 of 343top 5%
Median income
$47,880
Renters
27.1%
Under 35
10.8%
Top industry
Retail & service · 25.9%
Area
389 km²
GE45 result
Margin
4.2%
Competitive
95.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare36.0% aged 65+
Employment21.4% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#249
Median income
$47,880
#181
Avg 2BR rent
$1465/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#1
Unemployment
21.4%
top 5%#118
Shelter stressed
22.6%
#182
Renters
27.1%
Age distribution
Under 35
10.8%#296
35–64
53.3%
65+
36.0%#36
Housing tenure
Renters
27.1%#182
Owners
72.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.5%#211
High school
29.9%#62
College/trades
35.7%#T157
Bachelor's
17.6%#195
Postgrad
8.3%#189
People & Economy
#T209
French knowledge
6.7%
#135
Immigrants
23.4%
#T180
Recent arrivals
2.6%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#165
Visible minority
19.5%
#T180
Indigenous
2.5%
#77
Govt. transfers
16.5%
top 25%#T117
Self-employed
15.6%
Industry of employment
Public sector22.9%
Trades & transport16.4%
Finance & prof8.9%
Manufacturing7.4%
Resources2.0%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 43.8 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$8.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.5M/yr
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