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NBSAFEAtlantic
Saint John—Kennebecasis
W
Wayne Long
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal62%±7%·>99% win
Conservative28%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
20.6%
#24 of 343top 10%
Median income
$51,550
Renters
38.8%
Under 35
17.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 29.5%
Area
418 km²
GE45 result
Margin
20.8%
Competitive
79.2/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare28.3% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T182
Median income
$51,550
#244
Avg 2BR rent
$1254/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T176
Unemployment
10.0%
#227
Shelter stressed
16.5%
#89
Renters
38.8%
Age distribution
Under 35
17.8%#T99
35–64
54.0%
65+
28.3%#167
Housing tenure
Renters
38.8%#89
Owners
61.2%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
7.5%#238
High school
27.7%#103
College/trades
34.0%#186
Bachelor's
20.8%#149
Postgrad
10.1%#155
People & Economy
#102
French knowledge
16.7%
#240
Immigrants
8.9%
#150
Recent arrivals
3.6%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#208
Visible minority
10.7%
#184
Indigenous
2.4%
#T166
Govt. transfers
13.3%
#318
Self-employed
9.0%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector29.5%
Trades & transport13.6%
Finance & prof10.6%
Manufacturing7.0%
Resources1.5%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 32.5 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 0 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.4M/yr
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