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QCSAFEQuebec
Gatineau
S
Steven MacKinnon
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal64%±6%·>99% win
Bloc Québécois16%±5%·<1% win
Conservative12%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green2%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Public sector
46.4%
#7 of 343top 5%
Median income
$52,700
Renters
34.6%
Under 35
16.6%
Top industry
Public sector · 46.4%
Area
96 km²
GE45 result
Margin
41.4%
Competitive
58.6/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare25.6% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#165
Median income
$52,700
#T299
Avg 2BR rent
$1050/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T202
Unemployment
9.4%
#274
Shelter stressed
13.6%
bottom 25%#108
Renters
34.6%
Age distribution
Under 35
16.6%#124
35–64
57.7%
65+
25.6%#219
Housing tenure
Renters
34.6%#108
Owners
65.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
14.5%#60
High school
19.9%#T227
College/trades
39.7%#T96
Bachelor's
16.8%#206
Postgrad
9.1%#172
People & Economy
#51
French knowledge
95.3%
top 25%#211
Immigrants
11.9%
#197
Recent arrivals
2.2%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#187
Visible minority
14.2%
#126
Indigenous
4.1%
#T148
Govt. transfers
13.8%
#T312
Self-employed
9.2%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector46.4%
Trades & transport15.1%
Finance & prof6.6%
Manufacturing2.6%
Resources0.5%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 49.9 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.5M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$12.7M/yr
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