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ABSAFEPrairies
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
G
Glen Motz
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative67%±6%·>99% win
Liberal21%±4%·<1% win
NDP7%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Resource sector
11.8%
#27 of 343top 10%
Median income
$51,700
Renters
25.8%
Under 35
16.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.8%
Area
28,589 km²
GE45 result
Margin
59.0%
Competitive
41.0/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare30.1% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T177
Median income
$51,700
#258
Avg 2BR rent
$1211/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T167
Unemployment
10.2%
#195
Shelter stressed
18.3%
#200
Renters
25.8%
Age distribution
Under 35
16.1%#134
35–64
53.7%
65+
30.1%#121
Housing tenure
Renters
25.8%#200
Owners
74.2%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
13.0%#81
High school
30.7%#49
College/trades
38.7%#119
Bachelor's
13.1%#274
Postgrad
4.5%#297
People & Economy
#331
French knowledge
3.2%
bottom 5%#231
Immigrants
9.8%
#T214
Recent arrivals
1.9%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#235
Visible minority
6.9%
#106
Indigenous
5.0%
#T137
Govt. transfers
14.2%
#77
Self-employed
17.2%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector28.8%
Trades & transport19.9%
Resources11.8%
Finance & prof6.5%
Manufacturing4.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 23.7 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 5 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$6.8M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$3.9M/yr
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