ONLEANOntario

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Patty Hajdu

Liberal

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal60%±6%·>99% win

Conservative27%±5%·<1% win

NDP8%±6%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Public sector

38.2%

#18 of 343top 10%

Median income

$52,450

Renters

27.9%

Under 35

16.4%

Top industry

Public sector · 38.2%

Area

169,756 km²

GE45 result

Margin

19.5%

Competitive

80.5/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare31.9% aged 65+

Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 133 (Canada avg 100)

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T168

Median income

$52,450

#274

Avg 2BR rent

$1148/mo

bottom 25%

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T143

Unemployment

10.7%

#T264

Shelter stressed

14.3%

bottom 25%

#171

Renters

27.9%

Age distribution

Under 35

16.4%#130

35–64

51.6%

65+

31.9%#88

Housing tenure

Renters

27.9%#171

Owners

68.6%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

12.4%#88

High school

25.3%#142

College/trades

35.4%#167

Bachelor's

17.7%#T193

Postgrad

9.1%#T173

People & Economy

#145

French knowledge

10.1%

#245

Immigrants

8.4%

#T264

Recent arrivals

1.0%

bottom 25%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#T250

Visible minority

6.2%

#19

Indigenous

19.4%

top 10%

#104

Govt. transfers

15.6%

#315

Self-employed

9.1%

bottom 10%

Industry of employment

Public sector38.2%

Trades & transport18.6%

Finance & prof7.0%

Resources5.7%

Manufacturing3.8%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 31.1 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

High

Index: 133 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 76.2 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$182.4M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$3.3M/yr

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