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ONLEANOntario
Scarborough—Agincourt
J
Jean Yip
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal58%±6%·>99% win
Conservative32%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Shelter stressed
33.5%
#15 of 343top 5%
Median income
$42,440
Renters
34.0%
Under 35
13.4%
Top industry
Public sector · 20.4%
Area
28 km²
GE45 result
Margin
11.5%
Competitive
88.5/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare35.5% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement63.0% immigrants
Employment16.2% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#321
Median income
$42,440
bottom 10%#81
Avg 2BR rent
$1836/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T16
Unemployment
16.2%
top 5%#15
Shelter stressed
33.5%
top 5%#110
Renters
34.0%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.4%#T218
35–64
51.1%
65+
35.5%#42
Housing tenure
Renters
34.0%#110
Owners
66.0%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.3%#130
High school
21.3%#209
College/trades
24.6%#304
Bachelor's
29.4%#54
Postgrad
13.5%#T101
People & Economy
#274
French knowledge
5.1%
bottom 25%#2
Immigrants
63.0%
top 5%#23
Recent arrivals
8.2%
top 10%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#9
Visible minority
80.4%
top 5%#327
Indigenous
0.4%
bottom 5%#T78
Govt. transfers
16.4%
top 25%#136
Self-employed
14.8%
Industry of employment
Public sector20.4%
Finance & prof19.8%
Trades & transport12.8%
Manufacturing9.7%
Resources0.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 28.0 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$23.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.3M/yr
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