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ONSAFEOntario
Scarborough Southwest
D
Doly Begum
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal66%±6%·>99% win
Conservative22%±5%·<1% win
NDP7%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Transit commuters
31.0%
#8 of 343top 5%
Median income
$48,560
Renters
45.7%
Under 35
11.4%
Top industry
Public sector · 24.5%
Area
34 km²
GE45 result
Margin
30.9%
Competitive
69.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare26.3% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement46.8% immigrants
Employment16.5% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T230
Median income
$48,560
#T197
Avg 2BR rent
$1413/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#13
Unemployment
16.5%
top 5%#62
Shelter stressed
27.4%
top 25%#58
Renters
45.7%
top 25%Age distribution
Under 35
11.4%#282
35–64
62.3%
65+
26.3%#202
Housing tenure
Renters
45.7%#58
Owners
54.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.6%#149
High school
23.5%#T168
College/trades
26.9%#276
Bachelor's
24.3%#114
Postgrad
14.6%#88
People & Economy
#218
French knowledge
6.6%
#40
Immigrants
46.8%
top 25%#49
Recent arrivals
6.8%
top 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#34
Visible minority
62.9%
top 10%#T260
Indigenous
1.4%
bottom 25%#T135
Govt. transfers
14.3%
#T173
Self-employed
13.6%
Industry of employment
Public sector24.5%
Finance & prof17.1%
Trades & transport15.0%
Manufacturing6.5%
Resources0.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 28.6 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 81.1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$6.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.3M/yr
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