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ONSWINGOntario
Simcoe—Grey
T
Terry Dowdall
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal45%±6%·57% win
Conservative44%±5%·43% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
65+
36.8%
#24 of 343top 10%
Median income
$56,900
Renters
17.9%
Under 35
10.5%
Top industry
Public sector · 24.3%
Area
2,545 km²
GE45 result
Margin
8.7%
Competitive
91.3/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare36.8% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#101
Median income
$56,900
#116
Avg 2BR rent
$1668/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T117
Unemployment
11.4%
#154
Shelter stressed
20.7%
#300
Renters
17.9%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
10.5%#305
35–64
52.7%
65+
36.8%#24
Housing tenure
Renters
17.9%#300
Owners
82.1%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.0%#162
High school
30.6%#51
College/trades
37.5%#141
Bachelor's
15.7%#223
Postgrad
6.2%#239
People & Economy
#201
French knowledge
6.9%
#T199
Immigrants
13.2%
#284
Recent arrivals
0.7%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#247
Visible minority
6.3%
#T170
Indigenous
2.8%
#T166
Govt. transfers
13.3%
#T41
Self-employed
19.4%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector24.3%
Trades & transport20.9%
Manufacturing10.0%
Finance & prof9.6%
Resources2.7%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 48.0 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.8M/yr
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