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ONSAFEOntario
Thornhill
M
Melissa Lantsman
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative58%±5%·>99% win
Liberal34%±5%·<1% win
NDP3%±4%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Self-employed
23.1%
#8 of 343top 5%
Median income
$62,400
Renters
21.6%
Under 35
11.4%
Top industry
Finance & prof · 23.8%
Area
70 km²
GE45 result
Margin
35.2%
Competitive
64.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare29.8% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement52.0% immigrants
Employment13.0% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#58
Median income
$62,400
top 25%#18
Avg 2BR rent
$2266/mo
top 10%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T59
Unemployment
13.0%
top 25%#14
Shelter stressed
34.0%
top 5%#258
Renters
21.6%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
11.4%#280
35–64
58.7%
65+
29.8%#131
Housing tenure
Renters
21.6%#258
Owners
78.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
3.8%#328
High school
15.3%#312
College/trades
23.5%#316
Bachelor's
34.9%#19
Postgrad
22.5%#24
People & Economy
#179
French knowledge
7.7%
#25
Immigrants
52.0%
top 10%#97
Recent arrivals
5.3%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#76
Visible minority
42.3%
top 25%#339
Indigenous
0.2%
bottom 5%#T294
Govt. transfers
8.6%
bottom 25%#8
Self-employed
23.1%
top 5%Industry of employment
Finance & prof23.8%
Public sector23.2%
Trades & transport9.7%
Manufacturing7.9%
Resources0.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 37.2 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 76.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$29.3M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.2M/yr
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