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ONSWINGOntario
Whitby
R
Ryan Turnbull
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal57%±6%·>99% win
Conservative33%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Avg 2BR rent
$2033/mo
#40 of 343top 25%
Median income
$60,700
Renters
20.1%
Under 35
10.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.2%
Area
93 km²
GE45 result
Margin
8.9%
Competitive
91.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare25.0% aged 65+
Employment12.7% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T63
Median income
$60,700
top 25%#40
Avg 2BR rent
$2033/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T65
Unemployment
12.7%
top 25%#122
Shelter stressed
22.3%
#274
Renters
20.1%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
10.3%#307
35–64
64.6%
65+
25.0%#232
Housing tenure
Renters
20.1%#274
Owners
79.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
6.0%#T274
High school
23.0%#177
College/trades
34.1%#T183
Bachelor's
25.1%#107
Postgrad
11.7%#129
People & Economy
#167
French knowledge
8.0%
#106
Immigrants
30.2%
#145
Recent arrivals
3.8%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#85
Visible minority
38.6%
top 25%#T247
Indigenous
1.5%
#T263
Govt. transfers
9.8%
bottom 25%#201
Self-employed
12.7%
Industry of employment
Public sector25.2%
Finance & prof17.6%
Trades & transport15.1%
Manufacturing6.5%
Resources0.6%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 39.6 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 76.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.3M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.7M/yr
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