Fredericton-York
MLA: Ryan Cullins · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for Monday, October 16, 2028.
Progressive Conservative98% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 41.4% projected vote98%
- Liberal · 28.3% projected vote2%
2024 result
- Ryan Cullins · PCelected3,57243.8%
- Tanya Whitney · Liberal2,52731.0%
- Pam Allen-LeBlanc · Green1,67320.5%
- Michael Broderick · People's Alliance2563.1%
- Steven J. LaForest · NDP1331.6%
- Margin
- 12.8%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 67.5%
- Registered
- 12,084
2020 result, moved onto today's map
Fought on the old map. NorthernVibe moved this result onto today's boundaries, polling division by polling division, so it is an estimate of how this district voted, not a count. It is here for comparison; the projection starts from 2024.
- PC3,36942.2%
- Green1,88023.6%
- People's Alliance1,83723.0%
- Liberal80210.1%
- NDP660.8%
- Other240.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on New Brunswick's provincial districts, and the province's own last profiles used the 2016 census on the old map, so these are built from the dissemination areas inside each one, an area crossed by a boundary divided by where its people live: counts are weighted sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 49 districts.
- Median household income
- $79,50011 of 49
- Average rent
- $1,0716 of 49
- Renters
- 19.1%30 of 49
- Bachelor's or higher
- 24.6%10 of 49
- Median age
- 43.936 of 49
- Over 65
- 21.3%35 of 49
- Speak French
- 19.8%33 of 49
- Immigrants
- 5.3%18 of 49
- Indigenous identity
- 3.8%17 of 49
- Unemployment
- 8.0%41 of 49
Closest races, Fredericton and Capital Region
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Results and boundaries: Elections New Brunswick. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – New Brunswick. Census profile: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into districts by NorthernVibe.