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Moncton and SoutheastLeanUrban

Riverview

MLA: Rob Weir · Progressive Conservative

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for Monday, October 16, 2028.

Progressive Conservative77% chance of winning

  • Progressive Conservative · 35.5% projected vote77%
  • Liberal · 30.8% projected vote22%
  • Green · 23.9% projected vote1%

2024 result

  • Rob Weir · PCelected3,11438.8%
  • Scott Grant · Liberal2,74034.1%
  • Sarah Lord · Green1,97824.6%
  • Desiree Despres · NDP1281.6%
  • Rebecca Mallaley · Libertarian690.9%
Margin
4.7%
Tier
Toss-up
Turnout
65.6%
Registered
12,243

2020 result, moved onto today's map

Fought on the old map. NorthernVibe moved this result onto today's boundaries, polling division by polling division, so it is an estimate of how this district voted, not a count. It is here for comparison; the projection starts from 2024.

  • PC4,69060.2%
  • Liberal1,26716.3%
  • Green79610.2%
  • People's Alliance77610.0%
  • NDP2573.3%
  • Independent10.0%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on New Brunswick's provincial districts, and the province's own last profiles used the 2016 census on the old map, so these are built from the dissemination areas inside each one, an area crossed by a boundary divided by where its people live: counts are weighted sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 49 districts.

Median household income
$78,00012 of 49
Average rent
$1,0268 of 49
Renters
26.2%15 of 49
Bachelor's or higher
20.8%16 of 49
Median age
46.428 of 49
Over 65
23.3%24 of 49
Speak French
28.4%23 of 49
Immigrants
5.7%17 of 49
Indigenous identity
1.4%48 of 49
Unemployment
8.2%40 of 49

Closest races, Moncton and Southeast

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Results and boundaries: Elections New Brunswick. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – New Brunswick. Census profile: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into districts by NorthernVibe.