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ONLEANOntario
Barrie South—Innisfil
J
John Brassard
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative50%±5%·92% win
Liberal40%±5%·8% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
11.6%
#28 of 343top 10%
Median income
$54,200
Renters
20.3%
Under 35
13.5%
Top industry
Public sector · 24.0%
Area
407 km²
GE45 result
Margin
19.8%
Competitive
80.2/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#138
Median income
$54,200
#35
Avg 2BR rent
$2060/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T98
Unemployment
11.9%
#T95
Shelter stressed
23.8%
#269
Renters
20.3%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
13.5%#T215
35–64
63.7%
65+
22.8%#279
Housing tenure
Renters
20.3%#269
Owners
79.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
9.4%#177
High school
28.2%#T93
College/trades
38.5%#122
Bachelor's
17.0%#203
Postgrad
6.8%#221
People & Economy
#229
French knowledge
6.3%
#163
Immigrants
19.3%
#200
Recent arrivals
2.1%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#171
Visible minority
16.9%
#165
Indigenous
2.9%
#T214
Govt. transfers
11.4%
#T131
Self-employed
14.8%
Industry of employment
Public sector24.0%#229
Trades & transport21.7%#T73
Manufacturing10.9%#T70
Finance & prof9.7%#190
Resources0.9%#T217
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 40.4 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.3M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.1M/yr
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