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ONTOSSUPOntario
Bowmanville—Oshawa North
J
Jamil Jivani
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal48%±6%·79% win
Conservative42%±6%·22% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Avg 2BR rent
$2088/mo
#30 of 343top 10%
Median income
$57,150
Renters
17.5%
Under 35
14.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 27.8%
Area
412 km²
GE45 result
Margin
4.3%
Competitive
95.7/100
Key issues
Employment12.4% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T98
Median income
$57,150
#30
Avg 2BR rent
$2088/mo
top 10%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T78
Unemployment
12.4%
top 25%#125
Shelter stressed
22.2%
#303
Renters
17.5%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
14.7%#179
35–64
63.8%
65+
21.5%#296
Housing tenure
Renters
17.5%#303
Owners
82.5%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
6.6%#258
High school
24.4%#151
College/trades
40.6%#83
Bachelor's
19.9%#160
Postgrad
8.5%#187
People & Economy
#T175
French knowledge
7.8%
#148
Immigrants
21.7%
#174
Recent arrivals
2.7%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#123
Visible minority
29.1%
#T193
Indigenous
2.2%
#T238
Govt. transfers
10.6%
#T212
Self-employed
12.5%
Industry of employment
Public sector27.8%
Trades & transport18.3%
Finance & prof12.0%
Manufacturing6.7%
Resources1.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 28.2 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 82.8 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.5M/yr
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