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MBTOSSUPPrairies
Kildonan—St. Paul
R
Raquel Dancho
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal46%±6%·80% win
Conservative40%±6%·20% win
NDP9%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Public sector
32.1%
#69 of 343top 25%
Median income
$54,450
Renters
28.2%
Under 35
13.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 32.1%
Area
301 km²
GE45 result
Margin
2.8%
Competitive
97.2/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare31.6% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T131
Median income
$54,450
#101
Avg 2BR rent
$1752/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T274
Unemployment
7.6%
bottom 25%#206
Shelter stressed
17.6%
#T168
Renters
28.2%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.1%#234
35–64
55.4%
65+
31.6%#T96
Housing tenure
Renters
28.2%#T168
Owners
71.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
7.9%#T224
High school
28.2%#T93
College/trades
32.1%#211
Bachelor's
24.0%#120
Postgrad
7.7%#197
People & Economy
#T222
French knowledge
6.5%
#141
Immigrants
22.5%
#T157
Recent arrivals
3.4%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#154
Visible minority
22.9%
#43
Indigenous
11.1%
top 25%#T191
Govt. transfers
12.0%
#269
Self-employed
11.0%
bottom 25%Industry of employment
Public sector32.1%
Trades & transport19.2%
Finance & prof9.6%
Manufacturing8.8%
Resources0.9%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 32.6 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
High severityIndex: 159.7 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$2.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.3M/yr
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