MBTOSSUPPrairies

Kildonan—St. Paul

Raquel Dancho

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal46%±6%·75% win

Conservative41%±6%·25% win

NDP9%±6%·<1% win

Green3%±3%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Public sector

32.1%

#69 of 343top 25%

Median income

$54,450

Renters

28.2%

Under 35

13.1%

Top industry

Public sector · 32.1%

Area

301 km²

GE45 result

Margin

2.8%

Competitive

97.2/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare31.6% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T131 / 343

Median income

$54,450

#101 / 343

Avg 2BR rent

$1752/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T274 / 343

Unemployment

7.6%

bottom 25%

#206 / 343

Shelter stressed

17.6%

#T168 / 343

Renters

28.2%

Age distribution

Under 35

13.1%#234

35–64

55.4%

65+

31.6%#T96

Housing tenure

Renters

28.2%#T168

Owners

71.8%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

7.9%#T224

High school

28.2%#T93

College/trades

32.1%#211

Bachelor's

24.0%#120

Postgrad

7.7%#197

People & Economy

#T222 / 343

French knowledge

6.5%

#141 / 343

Immigrants

22.5%

#T157 / 343

Recent arrivals

3.4%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#154 / 343

Visible minority

22.9%

#43 / 343

Indigenous

11.1%

top 25%

#T191 / 343

Govt. transfers

12.0%

#269 / 343

Self-employed

11.0%

bottom 25%

Industry of employment

Public sector32.1%#69

Trades & transport19.2%#147

Finance & prof9.6%#T192

Manufacturing8.8%#138

Resources0.9%#T222

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 32.6 / 100

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

High severity

Index: 159.7 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$2.9M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$0.3M/yr

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