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ONLEANOntario
Markham—Thornhill
T
Tim Hodgson
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal59%±6%·>99% win
Conservative32%±5%·<1% win
NDP4%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Unemployment
15.5%
#22 of 343top 10%
Median income
$48,360
Renters
15.2%
Under 35
8.3%
Top industry
Finance & prof · 20.9%
Area
62 km²
GE45 result
Margin
12.9%
Competitive
87.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare32.7% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement62.1% immigrants
Employment15.5% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T237
Median income
$48,360
#T62
Avg 2BR rent
$1931/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T22
Unemployment
15.5%
top 10%#41
Shelter stressed
29.5%
top 25%#327
Renters
15.2%
bottom 5%Age distribution
Under 35
8.3%#336
35–64
59.0%
65+
32.7%#T73
Housing tenure
Renters
15.2%#327
Owners
84.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
15.2%#55
High school
23.5%#T168
College/trades
21.9%#326
Bachelor's
26.5%#93
Postgrad
12.9%#110
People & Economy
#296
French knowledge
4.6%
bottom 25%#3
Immigrants
62.1%
top 5%#112
Recent arrivals
4.8%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#5
Visible minority
87.2%
top 5%#342
Indigenous
0.1%
bottom 5%#T178
Govt. transfers
12.8%
#52
Self-employed
18.7%
top 25%Industry of employment
Finance & prof20.9%
Public sector18.7%
Trades & transport12.5%
Manufacturing10.3%
Resources0.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 36.5 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$2.2M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.9M/yr
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