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ONLEANOntario
York—Durham
J
Jacob Mantle
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative47%±5%·79% win
Liberal42%±5%·21% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
13.2%
#8 of 343top 5%
Median income
$59,300
Renters
16.3%
Under 35
10.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 23.2%
Area
2,327 km²
GE45 result
Margin
16.0%
Competitive
84.0/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare31.8% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T78
Median income
$59,300
top 25%#71
Avg 2BR rent
$1896/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T191
Unemployment
9.6%
#133
Shelter stressed
21.7%
#313
Renters
16.3%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
10.1%#316
35–64
58.1%
65+
31.8%#T91
Housing tenure
Renters
16.3%#313
Owners
83.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
9.1%#183
High school
28.9%#76
College/trades
37.6%#137
Bachelor's
17.9%#190
Postgrad
6.5%#225
People & Economy
#238
French knowledge
6.1%
#178
Immigrants
15.7%
#269
Recent arrivals
0.9%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#201
Visible minority
11.7%
#T175
Indigenous
2.6%
#T231
Govt. transfers
10.9%
#49
Self-employed
18.7%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector23.2%
Trades & transport22.4%
Finance & prof11.9%
Manufacturing7.4%
Resources3.5%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 43.5 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 76.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$2.8M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.7M/yr
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