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BCSWINGBC
Saanich—Gulf Islands
E
Elizabeth May
Green
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Green41%±7%·90% win
Liberal29%±6%·10% win
Conservative17%±6%·<1% win
NDP11%±6%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
65+
43.7%
#1 of 343top 5%
Median income
$59,200
Renters
22.0%
Under 35
9.9%
Top industry
Public sector · 33.2%
Area
1,577 km²
GE45 result
Margin
7.3%
Competitive
92.7/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare43.7% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#81
Median income
$59,200
top 25%#91
Avg 2BR rent
$1806/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T308
Unemployment
6.3%
bottom 25%#145
Shelter stressed
21.1%
#252
Renters
22.0%
Age distribution
Under 35
9.9%#320
35–64
46.4%
65+
43.7%#1
Housing tenure
Renters
22.0%#252
Owners
77.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
4.9%#300
High school
22.9%#178
College/trades
30.9%#224
Bachelor's
25.2%#105
Postgrad
16.0%#70
People & Economy
#151
French knowledge
9.3%
#147
Immigrants
21.8%
#213
Recent arrivals
1.9%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#174
Visible minority
16.6%
#123
Indigenous
4.2%
#T201
Govt. transfers
11.7%
#11
Self-employed
22.4%
top 5%Industry of employment
Public sector33.2%
Trades & transport15.1%
Finance & prof13.0%
Manufacturing3.7%
Resources2.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 67.8 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 0 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 91.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.5M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.1M/yr
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