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Fraser ValleySafeUrban
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
Incumbent: A'aliya Warbus · Conservative
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
Conservative99% chance of winning
- Conservative · A'aliya Warbus (incumbent)99%
- BC NDP · Kelli Paddon1%
2024 result
- A'aliya Warbuselected13,65654.6%
- Kelli Paddon11,36645.4%
- Margin
- 9.2%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 60.2%
- Registered
- 41,587
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Kelli Paddonelected6,27830.5%
- Laurie Throness5,14225.0%
- Jason Lum4,19620.4%
- Jeff Hammersmark1,3816.7%
- Dan Coulter1,3546.6%
- John Martin1,0094.9%
- Diane Janzen5302.6%
- Tim Cooper3561.7%
- Eli Gagné2151.1%
- Josue Anderson570.3%
- Andrew Coombes370.2%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2455%
- 25-3447%
- 35-4456%
- 45-5459%
- 55-6463%
- 65-7473%
- 75+70%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $94,00027 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,57226 of 93
- Renters
- 16.9%90 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 18.1%68 of 93
- Median age
- 42.043 of 93
- Over 65
- 20.4%36 of 93
- Immigrants
- 14.2%65 of 93
- Visible minority
- 11.0%64 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 7.1%28 of 93
- Unemployment
- 6.4%87 of 93
Closest races in Fraser Valley
The seats most likely to move with this one.