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MBSWINGPrairies
Elmwood—Transcona
C
Colin Reynolds
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative35%±6%·51% win
NDP34%±6%·44% win
Liberal26%±6%·4% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Manufacturing
10.7%
#76 of 343top 25%
Median income
$46,160
Renters
28.7%
Under 35
18.5%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.0%
Area
172 km²
GE45 result
Margin
7.1%
Competitive
92.9/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T277
Median income
$46,160
bottom 25%#90
Avg 2BR rent
$1811/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T232
Unemployment
8.7%
#208
Shelter stressed
17.5%
#T157
Renters
28.7%
Age distribution
Under 35
18.5%#89
35–64
57.5%
65+
23.9%#T255
Housing tenure
Renters
28.7%#T157
Owners
71.2%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.5%#152
High school
31.3%#T35
College/trades
33.2%#197
Bachelor's
19.0%#T169
Postgrad
6.0%#T240
People & Economy
#T169
French knowledge
7.9%
#132
Immigrants
24.0%
#84
Recent arrivals
5.7%
top 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#126
Visible minority
28.5%
#31
Indigenous
14.2%
top 10%#T160
Govt. transfers
13.4%
#329
Self-employed
8.4%
bottom 5%Industry of employment
Public sector28.0%
Trades & transport21.0%
Manufacturing10.7%
Finance & prof8.8%
Resources0.9%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 39.2 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
High severityIndex: 159.7 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$26.0M/yr
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